HUGH BAYLEY, York Central MP and President of NATO’s Parliamentary Assembly, writes about the Crimea crisis and why Russia should be expelled from the G8.
THE Russian invasion of Crimea, in southern Ukraine, is an illegal act of aggression against an independent state.
It violates the United Nations Charter and other international treaties and agreements including the 1994 Budapest Memorandum signed by Britain, the US and Russia, guaranteeing Ukraine security in return for giving up its nuclear weapons.
So Britain is deeply involved with the crisis in Crimea, whether we like it or not. If, together with our allies in NATO and the European Union, we fail to protect Ukraine, it will undermine future trust in nuclear disarmament.
It is 25 years since the Berlin wall came down. Twelve ex-communist countries have since broken free from Moscow and joined NATO; 11 have joined the EU too. For a generation the risk of east-west conflict in Europe seemed remote.
Now we have to reassess the risk.
This is not Russia’s first military occupation of a neighbouring state.
It invaded regions of Georgia in 2008, and is still there.
Ukraine’s “provocation”, in the Kremlin’s warped view, was to rise up against the corrupt, dictatorial, pro-Russian President, Yanukovych.
When his troops started shooting and killing peaceful protestors, MPs from Yanukovych’s own party joined the opposition and voted him out and he fled to Russia.
The Russian reaction echoes its invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968, when the Czech people rose up against Soviet control, and the Russian invasion of Hungary to crush a popular uprising in 1956. Western leaders, including our Foreign Secretary William Hague, rightly say Russia must pay a price if they remain in Crimea. We need to say what that price will be.
A full-scale counter-invasion is no more practical now than in response to the invasions of Czechoslovakia and Hungary. Russia’s nuclear weapons deter us, just as ours deter others.
The US has deployed ships and aircraft to warn Russia against advancing further into Ukraine. We and other NATO countries should support them and contribute to a multi-national deterrent force.
We should impose some immediate sanctions, such as on arms sales to Russia. Travel bans and restrictions on personal banking in the west should be imposed on selected Russians, including oligarchs close to President Putin, to stop them living the good life here if they support his war in Ukraine.
Russia always looked out of place at the G8 meetings of democratic country leaders. They should be expelled and we should go back to meeting as the G7.
Many European countries are over an economic barrel. Russia has become aggressive and unpredictable but they depend on Russian gas and oil.
Europeans must work to find alternatives to Russian energy – through conservation, renewables, imports from elsewhere and, dare I say it, fracking if we can deal with environmental consequences.
We must also keep talking. You do not lower the temperature by refusing to talk. As President of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, I have invited Russians MPs to meet MPs from NATO countries.
Ukraine may look like it is choosing between east and west, but it could be a bridge facing both ways.
Before the crisis, Ukraine expected to sign an association agreement with the EU. Putin told Yanukovych to block it, as Russia has important trade with Ukraine – selling gas and buying goods.
Yanukovych’s decision to ditch the EU agreement provoked the protests that led to his downfall.
A new Ukrainian President will be elected in May and will probably revive the EU agreement, and could resurrect Ukraine’s plans to join NATO.
If Ukraine wants closer ties with the west we should respond positively but we should not prevent trade with Russia. Russia need not feel isolated or threatened.
Germany, an EU member, buys a third of its gas and oil from Russia.
Ukraine could trade two ways too.
In any case, Ukraine is not ready to join the EU. It is plagued by corruption and widespread human rights abuse.
It needs constitutional and economic reform and an overhaul of its justice system to protect human rights, crack down on corruption, and make simple things like contracts enforceable so local and foreign companies will invest and give the country a better, more prosperous, more independent future.
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