Weird weather

PRIMROSES flowering in mid-January, warm, blustery conditions more suited to April than mid-winter, and floods. What is it with the weather?

Last year, both July and September were the hottest since records began in 1659. July was not only the hottest July on record - it was the hottest month ever recorded in this country.

December was unseasonably warm, too, the hottest since 1988 (even though, according to Mike Elliott, of the Askham Bryan College weather centre, we had only 23.9 hours of sunshine last month, compared to a December average of 90.6).

Unsurprisingly, that succession of warm months ensured that 2006 was the warmest year on record in the UK.

And so far this year. well, if the weather continues as it has been, we will be in for the warmest January since records began too, says Tony Conlan, a forecaster with Meteo Group.

Temperatures at present are four degrees centigrade above average for this time of year, Mr Conlan says. No wonder all the summer flowers are still clinging on, and the spring shoots and blossoms are appearing so early. They are all confused.

It isn't going to last, however. By the weekend, the unseasonably warm, wet weather is expected to come to an end.

"Over the weekend there will be a transition from one weather type to another," Mr Conlan says. "We will lose the very moderate south-west wind we've been having, and start getting a north wind. It will get cold over the weekend."

There may even be snow followed, next week, by sunny days and cold nights, with sharp overnight frosts.

Back to more normal January weather, in other words. Those summer-flowering marguerites still clinging to life in some gardens will finally, with the coming of the frosts, get the message that autumn is over. And those early-flowering blossoms, snowdrops and primroses may wish they had waited a little longer.

None of which changes the fact that we could well be in for a very warm 2007. In fact - surprise, surprise - it could well be the warmest year on record, according to the Met Office.

If it is, it won't be entirely the fault of global warming. The reason the Met Office is predicting such a hot year ahead is the El Nino event forming in the Pacific. An El Nino is a warm ocean current that occurs every few years, typically appears around Christmas off the coast of Peru and lasts for several months. The huge temperature shift in the Pacific ocean it causes can affect the weather worldwide.

There is a statistical correspondence between the appearance of El Nino and a hotter-than-usual following summer in the UK, says Mr Conlan. Sea temperatures around Britain and Europe are three to four degrees centigrade above normal for this time of year, thanks to warmer than usual global temperatures over the past couple of years. This also points to a warm year.

There is no doubt, however, that global warming caused by the burning of fossil fuels is a major contributor to the odd weather patterns we have been seeing, says Dr Andreas Heinemeyer, of the Stockholm Environment Institute at York University.

The freakish weather patterns are part of a trend, observed since the 1960s, in which increasing carbon dioxide levels have accompanied warmer temperatures, Dr Heinemeyer says.

The 1990s saw a succession of freakishly hot years, Dr Heinemeyer says - and so, already, have the 2000s. Those abnormally warm years have been accompanied by a general increase in average global temperatures.

So there is nothing surprising about the strange weather or the behaviour of plants and flowers, Dr Heinemeyer says. "Science predicted it!"

A study by University of York botanist Professor Alastair Fitter, for example, showed some years ago that changes in the flowering patterns of wildflowers are due to global warming, Dr Heinemeyer says.

Many of the recent weather conditions we have seen were predicted back in 2002 by the Yorkshire and Humberside climate change report.

So can we expect to see more strange weather in the future - and further changes in the way plants behave?

Almost certainly, Dr Heinemeyer says.

Even if we stopped pumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere today, global temperatures would continue rising because of the levels of greenhouse gases already in the air.

We are not going to be able to stop global warning altogether, in other words - all we can hope to do is minimise its effects. So further changes in our weather and our plant life lie ahead.

Essentially, we will experience warmer, wetter winters, and drier, hotter summers, Dr Heinemeyer says.

Some familiar British tree and plant species could be threatened as a result. The beech tree, for example, is susceptible to drought in the summer. The Yorkshire and Humber climate change report predicted the beech could disappear from Yorkshire, Dr Heinemeyer said.

Heather moorland could also be under threat. Most heather grows on peaty moorland. Peat is rich in nutrients - and as temperatures rise, those nutrients become easier for plants to unlock.

Grasses, however, find it easier to make use of the nutrients than heather does, Dr Heinemeyer says - so as temperatures rise, grass is likely to replace heather on the uplands.

Farmers could also be affected. Barley, for example, may no longer be viable in Yorkshire as temperatures increase - and potatoes could be hit, too. Potato viruses flourish in hotter, drier weather.

Farmers can always change the crops they cultivate to suit the new climate conditions, Dr Heinemeyer says. But we could face losing aspects of the traditional Yorkshire landscape that we all love, such as heather moorland and beech woods.

If we don't want that to happen, it is down to all of us to act: individuals by trying to adopt greener lifestyles; big business by being more carbon efficient; Government by finding the courage to take real action.

House builders, for example, could be required to build homes that were much easier to heat and light, Dr Heinemeyer says - making use of solar panels, perhaps, and being designed to be warm in winter and cool in summer.

And in Drax, we have on our doorstep a classic example of a massive power station at which even minor improvements could have a real knock-on effect on carbon emissions.

Individuals, governments, businesses - none of them can achieve on their own what needs to be done. "We have to work together."

Strange growth in the garden

PRESS gardening correspondent Gina Parkinson admits her garden flowers have been behaving rather strangely as a result of the warm weather. Plants such as marguerites, which normally bloom in summer, are still flowering in early January.

"I wouldn't normally expect that," Gina says. "If we had had a couple of frosts, I think they would have died back by now."

Conversely, some spring flowering plans are budding earlier than usual. Gina has snowdrops a good couple of weeks earlier than she would normally expect, and even some primroses. "I wouldn't normally start to see them until the start of February."

Generally, her garden is much greener than it would normally look at this time of year. Plants are hanging on because we haven't had the frosts that we'd normally expect at this time of year, Gina says. And many may be changing their flowering habits in response to the generally warmer temperatures. Plants that in England are seasonal may well flower all year round in some parts of the world, Gina says. "And in the warmer weather they are just in flower the whole year here too."

The year ahead

FORECASTER Piers Corbyn, who runs independent weather forecasting operation Weather Action, predicts that last year's extremes of hot and cold weather will continue into 2007.

Mr Corbyn, who bases his forecasts on solar output and claims to be able to make useful long-term predictions, says 2007's weather will be "quite dramatic".

"There will be some hot bits and cold bits between May and September and some stark contrasts - it's not all going to be nice."

There will be some snow, he predicts, perhaps even later this week. And the year will undoubtedly bring some freak weather, he says - but no more than usual.

"There are no more instances of this now than there ever have been, it's just that they are reported more," he said.

Freakish weather

* January, 2007: The River Ouse rose to 4.4 metres - just a metre short of the record-breaking levels of 2000.

* December, 2006: Records show it was the hottest December since 1988.

* September, 2006: The hottest September on record.

* July, 2006: Tropical thunder storms hit York, a mini tornado tore up trees in Wilberfoss and there was flash flooding in Malton and Pickering. It was the hottest July and the hottest month ever on record.

* March, 2006: Flowers failed to bloom in March because it was too cold.

* June, 2005: A massive rescue operation was launched after freak thunderstorms wreaked havoc across North and East Yorkshire.

* August, 2004: a 10-ft wall of water created havoc in the Cornish village of Boscastle and a landslide turned a main road in Scotland into a river of mud because of heavy rain.

* August, 2003: Britain sweltered in tropical temperatures which peaked at 38.5 degrees centigrade at Brogdale in Kent - the highest recorded in the UK since records began in 1659.