SELBY and Ainsty covers large rural areas to the south of York - but takes in the towns of Selby, Tadcaster and Sherbet in Elmet.

Conservative Nigel Adams is fighting to hold on to the seat he won from Labour's John Grogan in 2010, and is up against GP and health chief Mark Hayes for Labour, UKIP's Colin Heath, Ian Richards for the Green party, Liberal Democrat Nicola Turner and Ian Wilson for the Trade Union and Socialist Coalition.

Voters in Selby and Ainsty are older than the national average - with 22 percent aged between 18 and 34, lower than the UK wide figure of 28 percent.

Employment levels roughly mirror the national figure - with unemployment for over 16s at 5.3 percent according to the Office of National Statistics' constituency profiles.

The same figures show that around 83.2 percent of people in Selby and Ainsty are generally in good health - again similar to the picture nationwide.

With Kellingley colliery - Yorkshire's last deep pit mine - in the constituency its imminent closure and the loss of 700 jobs could be on the minds of voters as they chose where to give their support; as could the 400 jobs under threat at a fruit packing business due to close in May.


THE University of York’s Professor Neil Carter, an elections expert, gives his view of what May 7 could hold for Selby and Ainsty.

One of the biggest shocks in the Labour landslide of 1997 was John Grogan’s victory in Selby, traditionally a safe Conservative seat. Even more remarkably Grogan held the seat until 2010 when Nigel Adams won it for the Conservatives, with a comfortable majority of 12,265.

Nigel Adams is a strong favourite to be re-elected. The boundary changes that removed parts of the former Selby constituency after 2005 – notably the University - have made this seat look pretty safe for the Conservatives. Adams should also benefit from the incumbency effect of representing Selby for the last five years. But Labour retains a strong base here and their candidate, Mark Hayes, a local doctor, should perform respectably.

The Liberal Democrats were third in 2010, but their candidate, Nicola Turner will face a strong challenge from UKIP this time. In 2010 the small far right vote was split between UKIP, the BNP and the English Democrats: this year the UKIP candidate, Colin Heath, will hope to garner all those votes and more.

By contrast, the Green candidate, Ian Richards, may struggle to make an impact. Thus Selby looks like a two-horse race between Labour and the Conservatives, with the latter again emerging as the clear winner.