Should we lift Covid restrictions on June 21?

The latest data show that there were 4,330 new cases of Covid in the UK recorded on June 2 - and 25,240 new cases in the week up to then.That was a rise of almost 35 per cent on the week before.

There were also 12 deaths recorded on June 2 - though earlier in the week, the UK recorded the first day without any Covid deaths since March 2020.

PM Boris Johnson insists that there is ‘nothing in the data at the moment’ to prevent Covid-19 restrictions being lifted as planned on June 21. But experts remain divided over the issue.

Professor Adam Finn of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) said many people were still vulnerable to Covid-19 and that pressing ahead with the easing of restrictions on June 21 ‘may be a bad decision’. The Government’s former chief scientific adviser, Sir Mark Walport, has also argued that ministers need more data before they can make a final decision.

But Robert Dingwall, professor of sociology at Nottingham Trent University, said it is ‘really important that we go ahead’ with lifting restrictions on June 21 from a ‘societal point of view’.

The key changes on June 21 that may be most likely to help retailers and the hospitality industry would be the scrapping of the one-metre plus rule, and lifting the ‘rule of six’ indoors.

There would probably be less debate about deciding that face masks should still be required on public transport and in shops, or that social distancing should be maintained.

But what do ordinary people (and health authorities) in York think - and how well placed would the city be to deal with a third wave? We asked around...

The shop owner

York Retail Forum chair Phil Pinder, owner of The Potions Cauldron in Shambles, is dismissive of the whole idea of delaying lifting restrictions. He points to that day earlier in the week when there no Covid-related deaths in the UK at all - for the first time in more than a year. “I think this is just media scaremongering,” he said.

Phil Pinder of York Retail Forum: 'It's just media scremongering'

The restaurant owner

Chef and restaurateur Michael Hjort, owner of Meltons Too and The Chopping Block, says the worst thing the government could do would be to continue insisting it would lift restrictions on June 21 - only to change its mind at the last minute. Businesses needed to be able to plan, Mr Hjort pointed out. “The last thing the industry wants is changes done late. I would much rather have that date (June 21) put back now rather than find out some time later on that we’re going backwards again.”

Restaurateur Michael Hjort: 'What we don't want is a last-minute U-turn'

York businesses

Andrew Lowson, executive director of the York Business Improvement District (BID), said: “If there is a delay, like previous restrictions it will effect some more than others. On the plus side, many retail and hospitality businesses have adapted business models to work within current restrictions. However, certain pubs and bars suffer from having restricted numbers or cannot offer table service easily, so any delay will impact them. Anyone involved in weddings and events will (also) be very worried.”

Andrew Lowson: 'Pubs and bars are suffering from restricted numbers'

The GP

York GP Dr David Fair of the Jorvik Medical Group says he is ‘not particularly concerned’ about a third wave of infections. “I think that any spike probably would not be a very big spike, mainly because such a huge percentage of the population now have been vaccinated,” he said.

He does have two ‘slight, niggling concerns’, however. One is that younger people who have not been vaccinated may catch the virus - and while they may not become seriously ill in the short term, could develop long Covid in the longer term. His second concern is that virus circulating among younger, unvaccinated people and children could mutate into a more dangerous form. “It is very unpredictable,” he said. Dr Fair says we must, as a nation, begin to think about whether or not we should vaccinate children under the age of 18 so that they do not unwittingly act as a ‘reservoir of infection’.

York GP Dr David Fair

The Hospital

York Hospital stresses that there are no signs so far of a rise in Covid cases at the hospital. As of yesterday morning, it was looking after only two Covid-positive patients.

It is, however, geared up to deal with any future rise in cases, a hospital spokesperson said. Experience of dealing with previous waves of Covid would help. “Many of the things we will need to do to manage another wave, such as isolating and testing patients, and creating separate areas for infected and non-infected patients, are already firmly established and have been well tested.”

The hospital currently has one ward set aside for Covid patients – but could quickly increase capacity if needed, the spokesperson said.

The main concern about any third wave might be about its impact on the hospital’s ability to tackle the huge backlog of patients waiting for non-urgent treatments and operations.

“Our ability to tackle the backlog, should a fresh wave happen, will depend on the number of patients needing hospital care for Covid,” the spokesperson said. “It’s fair to say we are much better placed to respond than we were several months ago. By building on the lessons we have learned, we are able to flex our hospital capacity and community services as needed.

“As with all hospitals during the first wave, planned care was paused for three months, so everyone on the waiting list for planned care at that time was affected. In the most recent wave, only a small number of operations were postponed, where the clinical need was less urgent.”

York Hospital: prepared for any future rise in cases

The MPs

In his most recent column for The Press, York Outer MP Julian Sturdy pleaded with the government not to delay lifting restrictions.

“This prolonged disruption to everyday activities has now taken up an alarming proportion of all of our lives. The vaccination programme meant many people were now protected, he said.

“The information coming through does suggest the vaccine is holding up against the Indian variant. Given the reality that the virus will mutate into new variants, I feel it would be dangerous to set the precedent that each new variant means delaying the return of everyday freedoms.

“We could face a grim stop-start future of sporadic lockdowns without end.”

York Central MP Rachael Maskell said it was important to ‘keep on top of the data’ - and if there was evidence of an increase in cases that may pose a risk to the NHS, then the government might need to think again about June 21.

The date could perhaps be pushed back a few days if necessary, to allow more people to be vaccinated, she said. What she doesn’t want to see is a return to tiers - because there is always the risk of people travelling from a higher tier to a lower tier, and spreading infection.

If restrictions are lifted, she said, it might be wise to set up a testing station at York Railway Station.