A ‘bombshell’ poll has suggested that the Conservatives could finish third in York Outer, with a close finish between Labour and the Liberal Democrats to win the seat. 

Local Liberal Democrats are making the claim following the latest You Gov poll, which has the Tories trailing Labour nationally by 20-points (38%-18%), with Reform just 1% behind on 17% and the Lib-Dems fourth on 15%.

Party activists say applying this poll to the Financial Times online election predictor, the Conservatives are on course to lose more than half their 2019 support and fall behind both Labour and the Liberal Democrats in York Outer. 

The predictor has Labour on 30.7%, the Liberal Democrats on 24.7%, the Conservatives on 19.7% and Reform UK on 18.4%.

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Liberal Democrat Candidate for York Outer, Andrew Hollyer said: “This confirms exactly what we have been hearing on the doorstep, the Conservatives are finished in York Outer. 

“Voters are crying out for meaningful change after this government has left the NHS to crumble, rivers full of raw sewage and hard-working families struggling with the cost of living crisis.”

The poll comes as Conservative MP Julian Sturdy has appeared bullish about his prospects. He admits it will be ‘close’ but says the ‘feeling on the doorsteps’ is not like 2019 when he was re-elected with a 9,985 majority, but rather his first time in 2010, when he was elected with a 3,688 majority.

Based on current polling, Electoral Calculus suggests Labour taking the seat with 39.2% of the vote, followed by the Tories on 22.1%, Reform on 16.6%, the Lib-Dems fourth on 15.5% and the Greens on 5.5%.