NO political earthquake, then, but enough rumblings of discontent to shake Tony Blair.

The electorate delivered him an historic third term, a tremendous achievement by any yardstick. Fifteen years ago it would have been unthinkable that the Labour Party could enjoy more than a decade of unfettered power.

But this was not the overwhelming endorsement of New Labour seen in the previous two elections. Last night the party forfeited around 100 seats as much of the country lost faith with "Trust-Me Tony".

The Iraq conflict was a decisive factor. Mr Blair took the country to war on a false premise and he has paid the price. The Prime Minister will think twice about blindly following George Bush into his next battle.

The most interesting local result came in Selby. After several recounts, John Grogan was declared a narrow winner. As Selby was high on the Tories' hit list, this was a remarkable victory, reflecting Mr Grogan's popularity as a hard-working constituency MP and his independence of mind - a rarity in a New Labour backbencher.

Hugh Bayley in York and John Greenway in Ryedale won comfortable majorities. But more people voted against them than for them, and that adds up to a lot of frustrated constituents. Here is strong evidence of the need to reform the electoral system so every vote counts.

The best news for democracy was the turnout: it crept up slightly after slumping to a post-war low in 2001. Mostly, however, this was a night of negatives, mirroring the campaign. Many voters did not want to back Labour but were unconvinced by the opposition.

There is evidence of a Conservative revival here, but last night was hardly a triumph for Michael Howard. The Lib Dems made gains, but only from Labour, not the Tories.

In the end it came down to the economy. A prosperous Britain did not feel the need for a change.

While the result battered Mr Blair it flattered Gordon Brown. The Prime Minister today committed himself to serving the third term in full. Whether his much-reduced Parliamentary party are equally keen to prolong the Blair era remains to be seen.

Updated: 09:54 Friday, May 06, 2005