Hugh Bayley predicts that the loss of GNER in York could put the city's rail industry under threat. STEVE CARROLL harks back to the last time the industry was hit and tells how it recovered and its prospects for the future.

AT its height, it was responsible for the future of many thousands of workers. A city thrived on its expertise, its knowledge and its economy.

Then it was eroded, piece by piece.

When the announcement came that engineering giant ABB was to shut in 1995, it appeared to signal the end of York's majestic reign as a city of rail might.

But it recovered. GNER made York its base. ABB was taken over by Thrall Europa. Maintenance companies, designers and manufacturers flocked - helping to renew the lives of the thousands who had lost their jobs.

Now that process of erosion is gathering pace once more, and much could depend on a hugely important Government decision in the coming weeks.

As both the Strategic Rail Authority (SRA) and Government prepare to announce who has won the race to run services on Britain's flagship rail line, it could be more than just the 409 GNER staff at Station Rise who have cause to be worried.

It could be a city's rail industry.

Since the first tracks were laid, York has always been associated with railways. The great tradition of trainmaking began in 1839 when carriage repair shops were built in Queen Street.

Life on the Holgate site of what would eventually become ABB, and then until recently Thrall Europa, was born in 1865 with the construction of wagon shops.

By 1910, the rail revolution had taken hold so firmly that the Holgate site covered some 45 acres. It was a heyday for rail jobs with the industry the city's biggest employer.

Its workers made the York Holgate Road carriageworks famous throughout the world. Their work was a standard of craftsmanship that was envied. The decline of such a proud tradition began slowly, but accelerated rapidly. In June 1993, 532 jobs were axed following the loss of a £40 million contract at ABB.

The contracts continued to fall, the redundancies continued to mount until - in January 1995 - the bell finally tolled for ABB. It was a knockout blow for manufacturing. The company's remaining 750 workers fell on their swords.

Privatisation was blamed.

But if privatisation was behind its ills, so it also helped to lift the industry up once more. ABB was taken over by Thrall Europa. And, while it was a reduced workforce, wagon making continued.

GNER, from difficult beginnings, began to prosper - transforming its subsidy-driven business into an operation which now pays the Government more than £20 million a year.

There are some 3,000 jobs in the rail industry today - in engineering, design, track maintenance and renewals.

As with every industry, rail in York has had its peaks and troughs. In the last three years, Railtrack moved south, TransPennine Express moved to Leeds and Arriva Trains Northern lost its franchises - with Northern taking its new base to Manchester.

Thrall Europa closed bringing another round of woe to the beleaguered carriageworkers, and the Potters Bar rail crash saw Jarvis take a heavy hit on the financial markets.

The Rail Passengers' Committee, the consumer champion for passengers is closing. Its office in York is to shut and the prospects for the five staff who work at the Holgate centre are uncertain.

Allen Heath, regional organiser for the Rail Maritime and Transport Union, is worried for his York members.

"It is a very difficult time. Two franchises have been changed and we still don't know what's going to happen with GNER and the East Coast Main Line," he said.

"Everything is up in the air and members feel very uncertain. Some of them have worked on the railway for many, many years and they don't know where they stand.

"Jarvis were a major player in York and their demise has hit people considerably. We are in meetings all the time with the companies but jobs are in jeopardy."

It's bleak, but the situation is not yet terminal. In engineering, Corus Rail Consultancy is thriving. New plans have been submitted to build a train cleaning depot at Leeman Road - bringing 40 jobs to the city.

Network Rail employs more than 900 people in York.

Major rail firms, such as Balfour Beatty, WS Atkins, Captiva Rail, Omnicom Engineering, C Spencer Ltd, Grant Rail and DMQA, all have city offices and York staff on the payroll. There is also hope for the Thrall Europa site yet.

Should the SRA give its assent to GNER, a York-based company will run the country's most prestigious train line for another seven years at least.

What York MP Hugh Bayley fears is what will happen if that's not the case.

As he told the Commons: "The magnet for all those jobs has been GNER's decision to base the headquarters of its operations in York.

"GNER's East Coast Main Line is more than just a railway, it's an artery pumping the lifeblood of prosperity into all the regions through which it passes."

This affects more than just the railways, Mr Bayley says. It also affects York Central - York's heart - which the MP believes will be "developed only because of business brought into the city by the railway line."

He said: "Jobs in York, in Yorkshire and elsewhere along the line depend not on the mere existence of the railway but on the provision of a good railway service."

The SRA is taking its time. From an estimate of early February, it is now looking like at least March before a preferred bidder for the East Coast is announced.

That delay is unsettling. Not just for workers, but for companies who may be looking at York as a new base. The future of an entire industry could rest on their decision.

Updated: 10:51 Monday, February 14, 2005