If you had a vote, who would get it?

AMERICANS go to the polls today in one of the closest US presidential races in memory - well, since four years ago, anyway. Right up to the last minute, polls have shown the two main candidates, Republican George W Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry, running neck and neck.

Both candidates have spent millions in their bid to become (or, in Bush's case, remain) the most powerful man in the world.

But does it really matter to us over here who wins? And if so, why?

We canvassed a few opinions:

Haleh Afshar, professor of politics at York University

Bush sees himself primarily as a warrior, says Prof Afshar - and that is dangerous. There is an almost messianic, fundamentalist quality about him which is frightening, and in his determination to bring democracy to the rest of the world at any cost, you never know who he might be tempted to attack next. Cuba? Iran? At least Kerry has seen war himself, and so understands what it is about.

Ironically, given Bush's zeal to promote it, one of the most depressing things about the election is the bad example it sets in terms of the operation of democracy. Many think Bush cheated to win last time, Prof Afshar says - and thanks to electronic voting systems this time, there will be no paper trail of votes, in the event of any more irregularities.

Would vote for: Kerry. Not an ideal candidate, but the better of the two.

John Grogan, Labour MP for Selby

The election matters enormously, Mr Grogan says. So much so that he'll probably be up all night watching the result. "It is probably the most important presidential election of my lifetime," he says. Mr Grogan's assistant has been in the US helping campaign for Kerry: so, few guesses as to who the MP would support. If Kerry can't pull it off, he can see little prospect of the US and UK getting out of the mess that is Iraq. A Kerry victory might also help to build bridges between the US and Europe.

Would vote for: Kerry. "Absolutely, without a doubt."

Steve Galloway, City of York Council leader

If there were any doubt about the importance of the US elections to the rest of the world, the war in Iraq dispelled it, says Coun Galloway. How the new US administration deals with Iraq will have a major impact on the security and stability of the whole world. The outcome of the election will affect all our lives in other ways, too.

The US economy has a huge impact on the economies of other countries - including our own. And the attitude and confidence of ordinary Americans also has a knock-on effect.

"You only have to look at the reduction in North American tourists coming to York as a result of September 11," he says.

Would vote for: Kerry. "Mr Bush's attitude is frightening and I only hope that the American people can see that."

Frank Ormston, member of RESPECT unity coalition

It matters, Frank says, because the US is the world's pre-eminent power, and what happens there impacts on everywhere else. He is equally cynical about both major candidates, however. "They are so similar, you couldn't get a cigarette paper between them. They are both promising to extend and deepen the occupation of Iraq. Whenever Kerry gets targeted by Bush about being soft on war, he just comes out and acts even tougher."

Would vote for: Ralph Nader, the third candidate. "He doesn't stand a chance of winning, but he does stand as part of the movement against war and against global capitalism."

Charles Whiting, York-based military historian

The result of the election will certainly have an effect on the lives of ordinary people here, Mr Whiting says. The world will probably be a more dangerous place if Bush wins again. That in turn could have an impact on oil supplies and stock markets.

Would vote for: Probably Kerry. In the short term it would make little difference, but in the long term he might try to get out of Iraq more quickly.

Charles Whiting's latest book, The Field-Marshal's Revenge, is about the wartime special relationship between Britain and the US

Clive Booth, prospective Conservative Parliamentary candidate for York

Almost everyone he speaks to is dumbfounded that a man as uninformed as President Bush can even be running Kerry close, Mr Booth says. "When you see his performance on TV it is unbelievable."

To the ordinary man in the street in York, the election may seem to have little relevance - unless you happen to have a son or relative serving in the armed forces in Iraq. But at the political level it is very important, because if Bush were to be defeated, it would lead Tony Blair, as the other half of the Bush/Blair partnership which pushed for war with Iraq, effectively isolated. That could have major implications for our own general election next year.

There is also Bush's threatened Son of Star Wars programme. As a Quaker, Mr Booth says, he took part in protests against the use of RAF Fylingdales in that programme, and would be prepared to defy the Conservative whip on the issue if necessary.

Would vote for: Kerry. "The world needs a change after four years of fairly uninformed US government."

Godfrey Bloom, financial adviser and UKIP MEP for Yorkshire

The success of the European economy is very much dependent on the success of the US economy, Mr Bloom says, the US is Britain's biggest single trading partner, and Britain is the biggest overseas investor in the US. So what happens to the US economy is absolutely vital to our own, and to that extent, the US elections are very important to us. On the other hand, it is really Alan Greenspan who runs the US economy, not the president.

What really worries him about the US elections is the role that money plays: you have to be very rich to even stand as a candidate. "And what's very depressing is that it is going that way in this country. I spent over £30,000 of my own money when campaigning."

Would vote for: Nobody. "You've got two very ordinary candidates. I would be one of the 50 per cent of people (in the US) who don't bother voting."

Dan Atkinson, of The Other Side Comedy Club

Of course it matters, says Dan - for anyone who has got their priorities right, at least. "Let's face it. However tragic, a war makes great TV. John Kerry seems quite level-headed and ready to make concessions which is all very nice and ethical, but I'd hardly stay up all night to watch him doing it. Give George Bush another term in office and we're guaranteed (let me see, over four years...) at least another two wars - that's plenty to watch. I tell you something, it's a good job France doesn't have too many oil fields or they'd be next."

Would vote for: "It doesn't matter. It's rigged anyway."

Gerry Gray, York-based financial advisor

From the point of view of economics, it won't make much difference to the daily lives of any of us in York who wins, Mr Gray says. "We're in a global economy now, and the global economy is bigger than any one nation." In many ways, he adds, the growth of the Indian and Chinese economies is anyway now much more significant than what happens in the US.

Would vote for: Kerry. "I think he's more thoughtful. The trouble with Bush is that he's a bit gung-ho."

Jack Merry, landlord of York pubs The Ackhorne and The Tap And Spile

It isn't going to affect the price of a pint, Jack says, so he's not much interested. It isn't anyway the president who really runs the US economy - it is the advisers and civil servants. So he won't be sitting up this evening as the results come in. That said, lots of his customers have been saying they'd like Kerry to win.

Would vote for: Kerry. "It's just time for a change."

Gillian Cruddas, head of York Tourism Bureau

Two things affect the number of American tourists coming to York, Gillian says - how safe they feel about travelling, and how expensive things here seem to them compared to when they are at home in the US. If Americans perceive their leader to be strong, it does affect their willingness to travel. So, to that extent, the US election will have a direct effect on York: although the effect probably wouldn't be noticed until next summer.

Would vote for: with her tourism hat on, probably Bush. "On the basis that we have started to see a steady increase (in the number of American visitors) I would vote for more of the same. That doesn't mean I'm saying Bush is better than t'other chap, but at the moment I wouldn't want to rock the boat."

Updated: 09:16 Tuesday, November 02, 2004