WHEN it comes to winning or losing elections, too much should not be read into the performance of the respective leaders at Prime Minister's Questions.

William Hague, for example, was a match for Tony Blair most Wednesdays but still got drubbed at the ballot box.

Only a limited audience watch the 30-minute slanging match on live television and even then it is hard to judge who has won or lost without being in the Chamber.

But PMQs has a much bigger impact at Westminster itself. A good week for any of the three key players - Tony Blair, Michael Howard or Charles Kennedy - lifts the morale of his troops.

Mr Howard does well on a Wednesday, Tory MPs walk with a swagger for the rest of the week. This was certainly the case this week.

But the problem for Mr Blair is that they had a swagger last week too. And sooner or later the voters are going to notice.

As one Tory MP remarked: "It gives us confidence, which means whichever one of us goes on Question Time or the GMTV sofa puts in a good performance.

"I think this gets picked up by the voters."

Mr Blair, who needs to turn things round sooner rather than later, has certainly got policy headaches.

His U-turn to call a referendum on the European Union constitution has done lasting damage, projecting the image of a leader no longer in charge of events.

He is also facing tough times on immigration, with Britain preparing for the arrival of nationals from ten new (mostly Eastern European) members of the EU.

But Mr Howard is also starting to benefit from leaks.

And this is both significant and damaging for Prime Minister Blair - who will remember only too well the part leaks played in the downfall of the John Major Government.

The first allowed Mr Howard to taunt Mr Blair over the timing of Tuesday's immigration speech - in which he finally admitted the system was in a mess, that it was "crunch time" and that people who had voiced concern about past abuses were not racist.

When had he decided to to make the speech? Mr Blair said it was "an issue of huge public concern" and he had been planning it for months.

Mr Howard knew differently - he had the list of major speeches pencilled in for this week sent to Labour MPs last Friday. It was not present.

He accused Tony Blair of arranging the speech to the Confederation of British Industry "very hastily, at the last minute, because you were in a panic over newspaper headlines". There was little Mr Blair could say in return.

The second instance concerned the referendum. Why had Mr Blair begun last Thursday's Cabinet meeting with an apology? There was no "did the PM apologise?" - he knew it for a fact.

The Labour benches went silent, as Mr Blair replied: "Because we had to bring forward the announcement of the referendum..." Or, in other words, because half his Cabinet was seething not to have been told of such a significant change of heart.

Mr Blair tried gamely to claw back some ground, reeling off figures to prove Britain had gone to the dogs under Mr Howard (or at least the Government he served led by John Major).

But that is all starting to sound a bit lame after seven years in power.

Mr Howard knows it...

Updated: 09:52 Friday, April 30, 2004