TONY Blair hasn't just come out fighting against Labour's top-up fee rebels. He's been kicking, screaming and challenging the MPs to get back inline or bump him off.

The vote on backing or ditching the policy would be a vote of confidence in his leadership, he warned at his monthly press conference on Tuesday

"There will be absolutely no retreat," he told us, glassy-eyed and seething. "I never get drawn into speculation about what will happen if we lose...but of course my authority is on the line."

Landing a firm blow on the flailing Mr Blair's chin in the Commons the next day, Lib Dem leader Charles Kennedy remarked: "What you are saying is you are prepared to force your own MPs through the lobby on a confidence vote to introduce a promise of a policy in direct contravention of what you said in your own manifesto.

"Is that the action of a Prime Minister who is a strong leader or in fact an increasingly desperate one."

Mr Blair is certainly gambling all on Labour MPs not yet wanting to kill him off and his legendary powers of persuasion.

That he believes top-up fees are the only fair way to expand university places is beyond doubt.

The taxpayer shouldn't have to pick up the bill. He says general taxation is better spent on "social justice" projects such as giving a better start in life to disadvantaged under-fives.

And students who go on to earn more cash than non-graduates should be willing to contribute to their education, Mr Blair argues.

But both elements of his strategy are flawed. Firstly, Labour MPs no longer have full confidence in the Prime Minister's judgement. Many trusted him - against their natural instincts - when he said Iraq had weapons of mass destruction.

He spoke so passionately they thought he must be right and trudged reluctantly through the "yes" lobby, giving him a mandate to bomb Saddam Hussein's regime into the ground.

Thousands of lives later, those weapons of mass destruction have yet to be found and the MPs are yet to forgive.

Also, the vote of confidence trick is starting to look a little tired. It was wheeled out for Iraq and then again for foundation hospitals.

His whips may find it is third time unlucky, forcing him to pull back from the brink at the last minute - possibly even on the day of the vote - and kick the idea into the long grass.

What Mr Blair should be doing is listening to the 140 or so MPs threatening to rebel in January.

Selby's John Grogan said this week: "What we want on the Labour backbench is to compromise a bit. Quite a lot of us see some case for students making some contribution to their higher education, but what we don't like is this idea of top-up fees, the idea that each university can charge whatever it likes for its courses."

It is not an unreasonable request, but Mr Blair has got it into his head that listening and showing a willingness to compromise are signs of weakness.

Margaret Thatcher reached a similar conclusion, and opted to force through the poll tax in the face of opposition from within her own party.

Within a short space of time, she was gone. Is Mr Blair about to pay a similar price?

Updated: 10:14 Friday, December 05, 2003