TWELVE months ago the Queen's Speech set the scene for a battle royal over Tony Blair's Foundation Hospitals Bill.

The Prime Minister won - just - but on Wednesday he handed Labour rebels the chance for a re-match on the even more controversial topic of university funding.

Students hate the idea of "top-up" fees, as do dons, parents and even MPs previously loyal to Mr Blair.

But that didn't stop him making the policy the centre piece of the latest Queen's Speech, otherwise dubbed a legislative programme for "victims". He could soon be on the receiving end.

What is truly puzzling is how Mr Blair thinks he can win this one. On foundation hospitals, his massive 160-plus majority was cut to just 17 - and that is not an issue which could realistically cost "new" Labour MPs their marginal seats.

Let us assume, and it is probably fair to do so, the 62 MPs who rebelled over hospitals will do so again. (They are not called the awkward squad for nothing, and few issues are more awkward than allowing some universities to charge up to £3,000 a year).

With the Lib Dems and Tories also fiercely opposed to the idea, it would then be consigned to the dustbin if only a further nine Labour MPs turned against Mr Blair.

On Monday, 15 Labour MPs launched an organisation called "new wave" to persuade Mr Blair to change direction.

I checked how they had voted on foundation hospitals. Two had been among the 62 rebels, but the remaining 13 - including Selby's John Grogan - had either voted with Mr Blair or abstained.

A key policy objective of the "new wave"? Forcing a re-think on top up fees.

These 13 MPs alone are sufficient to tilt the balance and there are countless others, including a couple of ministers and parliamentary aides, whose names can be easily added to the list.

On Thursday the message was hammered home with a 128-name Early Day Motion, including five ex-cabinet ministers and Mr Grogan again.

Mr Blair may have a few tricks up his sleeve. He could perhaps buy-off one or two MPs with the promise of huge bursaries for poorer students who want to go to top universities but don't want to leave at least £9,000 in debt.

But others want nothing less than a humiliating climb-down by Mr Blair.

Take, for example, the half-serious proposal made by Former Health Secretary Frank Dobson, who signed the EDM. He wants a scheme to link the cost of university education to the amounts parents spend on school fees.

This would mean university would be free for state school pupils, but cost tens of thousands of pounds for those who attended the most expensive public schools.

Mr Dobson mischievously told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "Suppose we said that people should have to pay for their children's university education what they paid for their schooling, so that Old Etonians would have to pay £26,000 a year.

"That would be something that would appeal to the Labour Party and appeal to a lot of other people and it would be perfectly fair."

Mr Blair, ever conscious of upsetting the upper-middle and upper classes he courted for so long, would rather choke first.

But this is the battle he is facing and - for once - he appears to have bitten off much more than he can chew.

He had better start looking for his "reverse gear".

Updated: 11:44 Friday, November 28, 2003