IT is now almost eight weeks since the last case of foot and mouth disease. The countryside, having held its breath for so long, is beginning to breathe again.

The area immediately round York has not had any actual cases. There was a time, however, when the approach from the west, near Leeds, early in the outbreak, and the north, near Thirsk, late in the outbreak, seemed to be getting ominously close.

The great problem is that the effect of the disease has been felt way outside of agriculture. Tourism has been seriously hit and tourism is a major employer and has huge purchasing power.

The effect of the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington has made international air travel seem that much more uncertain. So we all look forward to a better 2002.

But what are the prospects?

The answer is that it can hardly get any worse.

The handling of foot and mouth seemed to close down large parts of the countryside. Interviews were broadcast with people who thought it unsafe to eat meat in Britain. When faced with that level of ignorance, it is difficult to know where to start.

The most important area outside agriculture and tourism where there has been an effect, has been in the minds of those directly or indirectly involved.

The levels of depression which people are going through are unprecedented. The normal pattern of work involves social contact with others. If that pattern is interrupted, for whatever reason, then people become isolated. If they are trying to avoid spreading a disease such as foot and mouth then the isolation becomes worse, and if they are struggling financially then the effect is magnified.

It is not so bad if a few can gather together and jointly grumble about the state of the world. Pubs are not only for drinking in. When people are on their own they imagine that they are the only ones suffering. It's not true, but it feels like that.

There was welcome news last week that the York Livestock Centre at Murton was to re-open, not for the sale of stock, but so people could, once more, get together for a cup of tea and a chat.

It signals a step towards normality. Many of those attending used the market as a social centre in what passed for normal times, before February. At least that part of the operation is being restored.

Nothing in any walk of life ever goes back to exactly what it was. Change is inevitable even if it is not always welcome. The countryside will pick itself up from this crisis.

There is no point in pretending, as our political leaders do, that all businesses will be leaner and fitter in the future, and, by implication, that the last nine months have been a sort of a blessing in disguise.

Many businesses, already weakened, are now fatally wounded. That cannot be welcomed. Staff will lose their jobs. These businesses will struggle on, until their bankers or their owners become fed up of throwing good money after bad.

There will be a number of businesses, however, which will expand into the areas left by failed enterprises. Their owners and employees will prosper and some of them will go on to great things. The cycle will continue.

Next year let's hope we can put this disaster behind us. This part of England, with York as its hub, has many natural advantages. If winter comes, can spring be far behind?