Will we face more floods?

FOR most of us, the news we are in for another cold, wet October weekend will be enough to put the dampers on our weekend plans. But while the promise of 'frequent heavy showers' on Saturday and Sunday followed by bands of heavy rain on Monday won't fill us with the joys of autumn it won't be the end of the world either.

For victims of last year's devastating floods in North and East Yorkshire, however - many scarcely back in their homes - every shower brings with it a sense of dread: and the awful fear it could all happen again.

At the Royal Oak in Old Malton, badly flooded a year ago, days of intermittent rain-watching have left landlady Juliet Stimson convinced she is going to be flooded again.

"It's very depressing," she says. "It's difficult to explain to two seven-year-olds and a three-year-old why mum is so upset. They don't understand. When the floods came in they thought it was fun. It was muddy, sewagey water in the pub but they thought they could splash about in it." She sighs. "It's difficult to explain."

Di Keal, who lives in St Nicholas Street, Norton, only returned to her home in June. Now she is bracing herself to be flooded out again. She's not the only one.

"We've been getting so many phone calls, saying 'what are we going to do, what are we going to do?'" she says. "It's an absolute nightmare. I know people who have been through so much in the last couple of years and who just cannot cope with the thought of it all again."

The jitters are understandable. Many of those flooded out of their homes last November had already been flooded out 18 months earlier. The thought of it happening again is unbearable. Yet, as the 'flood season' approaches again, we have already had the first flood alert on the River Ouse in York, during which cars parked in Queen's Staith ended up with their wheels in water.

It's not York that experts are most worried about, however. Residents of Rawcliffe and other areas of the city most badly affected may not agree, but the city's defences actually held up pretty well a year ago.

"York is fairly well protected," says Environment Agency flood defence engineer Bob Parry.

Not so Malton, Norton and Stamford Bridge - and not so Naburn, which for a few days last year virtually became an island. Work is at least scheduled to begin on flood defences for Malton, Norton and Stamford Bridge later this year. The Environment Agency insists it should be completed before winter next year - but that still leaves scores of homes and businesses defenceless this autumn.

The villagers of Naburn don't even have that cold comfort. The only real development since a year ago is an 'alternative route' out across fields for cars that get trapped when the road into the village is flooded - and the village has even been asked to pay for that itself.

Parish clerk Jenny Balding, whose own home was flooded last year, agrees Malton and Norton must be a priority. "But we are feeling neglected," she says. "We had two days of rain recently and it makes everyone nervous."

The worst thing is, nobody can really say what the chances of more serious flooding are. The Environment Agency has a 24-hour floodline to advise those who fear they may be at imminent risk; and its system of graded warnings is in place, which aims to give those in flood- risk areas as much notice as possible.

That's important. Even a few hours warning can make a difference. It means time to check on elderly or vulnerable neighbours - and also gives homeowners the chance to move furniture and valuables upstairs, to lift carpets, switch off electricity and take what flood defence measures they can; sandbags in the doors or even, if they attended last weekend's Flood Fair in Harrogate, more sophisticated alternatives such as 'floodguards' for doors and windows.

But such defences would be feeble in the face of heavy flooding. And officials admit they simply cannot estimate the risk of that during the next few weeks.

Bob Parry stressed last year's floods had been a "pretty extreme event." But he admitted because of climate change there was a trend toward more "frequent and stormy conditions". There can be no guarantees there would not be more flooding, he says.

"Unfortunately, within Yorkshire and the Vale of York, there are many properties in flood-risk areas."

River watchers such as Di Keal point out water levels in rivers like the Derwent seem to rise very quickly following rain this year. Ominously, experts admit underground water table levels in North Yorkshire are the same as, if not higher, than before last year's floods.

But historically, water table levels are still recovering from the droughts of the late 1980s and mid-1990s, they say, and are by no means at an all-time high. So what counts is the amount of rain that falls - and the amount of water in soil near the surface at the time the rain hits.

BBC weatherman Philip Eden says that so far this autumn, weather patterns have been very different to last year. Then, it was mainly warm, moist winds from the south Atlantic which brought the rain. This year, so far, the winds have been mainly from the north - and much colder and drier. It may not have seemed so, he says, but total rainfall for September was only about half what it was for the same month last year.

So the real test will be in the weeks to come. September was wet last year, weather expert Michael Dukes from the PA Weather Centre says - but it was the almost continuous rain in October and November that really did the damage.

Last year's floods were a freak event that would be expected to happen only once in 300 years, he stressed. It isn't impossible it could be repeated this year - but it is "highly unlikely".

More rain is forecast during the next few days. "But just because we've got some showers it doesn't mean we're going to get anything like last year," says Michael. For last year's flood victims that is little comfort. As the rain falls, frustration at the perceived lack of progress on flood defences grows.

"We can stand and scream and shout all we like," says Juliet Stimson, "but it is not going to get the work done any quicker!"

She says sometimes the urge to grab boots and shovel and start dredging the Derwent of silt is almost overwhelming. "I'd love to put my wading boots on and get all that stuff in the river out," she says. "If we cleared all the rubbish out, at least the water would have somewhere to go. People would gladly do it, I'm sure, but we're not given the option."

The Environment Agency insists dredging won't help. But when your home at stake, such calm assurances don't help either.

-The Environment Agency's floodline number is 0845 988 1188.

Updated: 10:53 Friday, October 05, 2001