Papillon can become the first horse since the late great Red Rum in 1974 to gain back-to-back victories in the tomorrow's £500,000 Grand National.

Aintree's Martell-sponsored showpiece has been the target for Ted Walsh's strapping gelding ever since his magnificent victory 12 months ago and the final piece in the jigsaw was slotted into place early this week when the Irish Government relaxed their original policy of travelling horses to Britain during the foot and mouth crisis by giving their blessing to National runners.

Although 9lb higher in the ratings this year, Papillon displayed such a wonderful affinity with the Aintree fences last season that he is expected to take all the beating in his follow-up attempt and, consequently, is awarded the nap vote.

The ten-year-old has had just two outings this season, both over a distance short of his best, but has acquitted himself admirably both times. A winner at Leopardstown in December, he subsequently finished an excellent second to the classy Klairon Davis over two miles at Fairyhouse.

Unlike so many others in tomorrow's race, Papillon has no stamina doubts, and nor will he be inconvenienced by the strong possibility of soft ground.

In trainer's son Ruby Walsh, he has an excellent jockey and, all things considered, there are very few negatives about the partnership taking the honours again.

Mely Moss, last year's runner-up, reopposes on 3lb better terms for a length- and-a-quarter beating. Another who has been prepared specifically for this race, he promises to be thereabouts again.

But, Mely Moss lacks a previous run this season and, although he's a horse who goes well fresh, you have to go back to Frigate in 1889 to find the last horse to win the National on their seasonal debut.

Beau, last year's Whitbread Gold Cup winner, is a classy horse on his day and is capable of running well, but he may be anchored by top-weight, while Smarty, representing Mark Pitman, who came close to winning the race as a jockey on Garrison Savannah 10 years ago, is another with chances. He may not, however, appreciate the rain-softened ground, which threatens to become even more testing by tomorrow.

Middleham trainer Ferdy Murphy is two-handed with Addington Boy and Paddy's Return, and both horses have some solid form to their credit.

Addington Boy has the advantage of course experience, having finished fifth last year, but at 13-years-old, it is hard to see him winning it as a veteran.

Dark Stranger, who came to grief early on in last season's National after being sent off favourite, tries again after a solid effort in the Racing Post Chase. If he can handle the fences this time, a bold bid could be forthcoming. But there is an 'if' all the same.

Earthmover and Esprit de Cotte, who were also casualties last year, similarly have to prove their jumping this time around. The last-named of the pair, will start at much longer odds than his rival and could prove a lively outsider.

Moral Support will have ground conditions in his favour, but he has had some hard races this year already and this may be one too many.

The Last Fling, seventh last year, has droppped in the weights since and is not without a squeak, along with Brave Highlander, a National regular, who finished fourth 12 months ago. The latter should give Philip Hide another good ride.

A cracking race is in prospect, and it is my view that Ireland, having won the last two runnings with Bobbyjo and Papillon, can do the business with the latter again. All he needs, like any National runner, is a sizeable dollop of luck.

It would be a curious coincidence if Mely Moss were to finish second to Papillon for the second year running, but it is far from a remote possibility.

1 Papillon (NAP)

2 Mely Moss

3 Esprit de Cotte

4 Addington Boy

Updated: 09:30 Friday, April 06, 2001