Some positive signs on the horizon

WE would like to take this opportunity to wish you all a happy and prosperous New Year. It cannot be wetter or more depressing than the one that has just gone.

There are already some positive signs on the horizon. The pound has weakened against the euro only slightly but every little helps, 63p is far better than 58p of a few months ago.

This year's subsidy rates were set at 62p/euro, each 1p rise is worth a further £1.45p/acre. The basis of subsidy for set-aside and cereals, which is set in euros/tonne, rises this year from 58 to 63 euros/tonne so despite the 2.5pc modulation we shall be slightly better off.

Perhaps most encouraging of all is the rise in cereal prices for next harvest, with £70/tonne for feed wheat now available. In the UK, about 75pc of the planned winter wheat area appears to have been sown, and a little over 80pc of the winter barley area. The latter represents quite a fall in the medium term, as the area never fully recovered from the swing to spring barley after the poor autumn of 1998.

In France, about 20pc of the equivalent winter wheat crop had not been drilled by December 1, and about 10pc of the winter barley is unplanted.

The potentially lower yields of some of the crops drilled into poor conditions has lead some observers to suggest production levels in the UK could only match domestic demand.

Further afield, Australia looks as though it will produce well under 20m tonnes at next harvest, but this has been offset by improved production figures from Canada.

Many of the early-drilled cereal crops are now becoming very weedy and every opportunity must be taken to apply residual herbicides. Later-drilled crops have little weed growth and if grass weeds are not a problem then waiting until spring is the best option. Remember to include a pyrethroid in early-drilled crops to minimise the effects of BYDV.

Most oilseed rape crops are at 6-10 leaves. Late-drilled crops on wet heavy land are still small, and red and purple tints on the leaves indicate stress in these smaller plants with 'wet feet'.

Early drilling has led to some large weed problems in oilseed rape. Chickweed, charlock (yellow flowers) and runch (white flowers) plants are now big enough to cause some concern. The problem is made slightly worse by the soft, poorly-waxed crops that have grown in the recent mild conditions and very wet soils.

Windy and frosty weather will further disrupt wax cover, but by early January most crops should be hardened and tolerate spraying - weather permitting. If you can get on, Galtak (benazolin) gives effective control of reasonably large chickweed, as do Benazalox (benazolin + clopyralid) and Fortol (cyanazine).

Most crops still have not had a fungicide, and Phoma leaf spot is present at high levels in most crops now. Apply Punch C as soon as conditions allow, this will also give control of light leaf spot.

Due to the unrelenting wet weather, MAFF is being flexible with the rules governing set-aside. If you need to take advantage of this, however, it is essential that you inform MAFF of your cropping intentions; speak to Northallerton before the January 15 deadline.

ADAS YORKSHIRE ARABLE CONFERENCE

Our main annual arable conference is at York Racecourse on January 17. If you are an arable group member, entrance is free and we will be writing to you soon. We still have a few places available for non-members. Tickets, which include lunch, are available from Dawn Nicholls (0113 264 3233) at £25 inclusive of VAT.

Updated: 09:41 Thursday, January 11, 2001