CRIME figures are notoriously difficult to interpret. It is not as if we lack practice: regular bulletins of crime statistics have made data analysts of us all. However, while the police, politicians, media commentators and householders pore over the same figures they often come to very different conclusions.
For the modern police force, collating the information is a vital element in the battle against crime. Without it, there would be no intelligence for intelligence-led policing.
But each fresh batch of statistics seems to increase the anxiety of many ordinary people, even when they show recorded crime falling. Ironically the figures consistently confirm that fear of crime is completely out of proportion with reality.
Somehow, the message is failing to get through: Britain remains a reasonably safe and law-abiding society.
And it is now getting safer, according to today's statistics. The British Crime Survey, billed as the most comprehensive overview of crime levels, showed a ten per cent drop in 1999 compared to 1997.
With the potential for confusion over crime figures, how useful is this Home Office poll? On its own, it has limited value. But taken in accord with other statistics, it is enough to confirm that crime in Britain really is falling, and falling significantly.
That suggests that intelligence-led policing really is working. And it also proves the link between a society's prosperity and crime. With unemployment falling and the economy growing, crime is falling. That is true both here and in the United States.
Disappointingly, the survey reveals that random violence is increasing. Young men are mostly the victims, with the crimes often fuelled by alcohol or drugs. Tackling this issue must be Home Secretary Jack Straw's priority.
But Mr Straw must not take these largely encouraging figures as an excuse to hold back on police recruitment. If police can cut crime with their present manpower levels, imagine what they could achieve at full strength.
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