RESIDENTIAL homes for the elderly could be closed or converted to other uses in massive changes to the way older people's needs are met in York.
An independent report commissioned by City of York Council also suggests spending £500,000 to support more 24-hour home care.
The 80-page study from the Nuffield Institute of Health sets out an action plan with a phased overhaul of present services and a switch away from residential care.
The institute's Peter Whittingham said the number of over-65s in York would rise by ten per cent in the next decade, with a 17 per cent rise in the over-85s, adding: "York has a challenge, but it needs to plan to meet the challenge."
The report says to achieve new Government standards in all the city's residential homes would require £4.2 million.
It concludes that isn't viable - but rules out wholesale closure or transfer of homes.
Instead its preferred option would cut the council's capital outlay to £668,000 and reduce long-term revenue costs by about £300,000, though requiring a major investment in new services.
A five-year programme would change how services were delivered, with joint arrangements with health and voluntary sector partners, integrated services, and localised delivery across four geographical areas.
Changes to services would include: spreading housing with care options like Glen Lodge more widely; redesignating some older people's homes to provide specialist mental health care; and spending £500,000 to support more 24-hour home care through the provision of a rapid response team for out-of-hours services, quicker assessment and support and extending the warden call service more widely.
Once these proposals had been introduced phased closure of some existing homes should be considered where measures to bring them up to Government standards would be too costly.
The council's executive member for social services, Coun Bob Fletcher, said: "The widespread nature of the report's recommendations and their potential future impact on the lives of everyone in the city obliges us to be cautious in our initial response.
"We would be doing a disservice to the city if we were to rush into passing judgement or the expression of views for or against any element of the report.
"Instead our approach should be a measured and analytical one."
Coun Fletcher said the report would be passed to an all-party working group, which would start working on it in September.
His Liberal Democrat shadow, Coun Sue Galloway, emphasised the importance of consultation.
E-mail andrew.hitchon@ycp.co.uk
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