Gearing up to beat the killer flu

Dr Louise Coole said national and international experts were predicting Britain was likely to be affected by such a pandemic - involving humans spreading a new mutated form of the bird flu virus to each other.

She said "thorough and ongoing" contingency plans were now being prepared to ensure the authorities in York and North Yorkshire were in the best possible position to respond if this happened. Similar plans were being drawn up in East Yorkshire.

Dr Coole, a consultant in communicable diseases at North Yorkshire Health Protection Unit, said:

If flu caused staff shortages at York Hospital, emergencies - including flu cases -would be treated as a priority, with other services modified and prioritised as appropriate.

Schools might be closed down across Britain if "absolutely necessary", depending on the observed patterns of spread. However, she denied rumours that local schools had been issued with plans to close down if there was a pandemic.

Steps would be taken with partnership authorities to ensure people in nursing homes got access to the care and support they needed. "For example, this might include administering anti-viral treatment to affected individuals or redeploying staff to critical or vulnerable areas of services."

But Dr Coole stressed that if a pandemic did happen, it would not just be the elderly at risk.

She said: "We should not underestimate the impact a flu pandemic would have on people of all ages," she said.

Dr Coole said that, as with any emergency of this nature, the authorities had to be prepared to deal with possible casualties and fatalities, although no plans had yet been confirmed for opening York Cremator-ium for longer to cope with extra deaths.

"We would like to assure people that a great deal of local multi-agency and county-wide planning is being carried out to ensure we are in the best possible position to respond to a flu pandemic," she said. "This planning is thorough and ongoing."

She said the key challenge for the health service was as it was for every other public service provider -"how do you keep everything working in the face of large numbers of staff off sick?

"Forward planning can make a big difference to how we succeed in the face of that challenge, and this is what the agencies are working together to address."

She stressed the current strain of the bird flu (also know as avian flu virus) was not in a form which could trigger a pandemic, and if a single case of bird flu was diagnosed in this country, it would not automatically mean a pandemic would occur.

"If this virus managed to change itself so it was 'adapted' to humans rather than poultry, then we may face a pandemic in this country, and this is why we are working collaboratively so we are prepared for this event.

"So we can ensure we are alerted to any cases of the current strain of bird flu, part of a national contingency plan includes sending out guidance to doctors. This will assist them when making a diagnosis."

Dr Coole said local planning included putting into place clear measures for detecting cases and their surveillance, infection control guidelines (including educating the public about the flu virus and how to prevent the spread of infection) and addressing how the health and social care services will work in partnership to look after large numbers of people with flu.

She said it was not possible to tell when the pandemic might happen, but it was as likely to come in summer months as in the winter.

If it did happen, members of the public would be given the "commonsense" advice given during other illnesses, such as staying at home to avoid passing it on to others through coughing and sneezing, disposing carefully of tissues and handkerchiefs and drinking plenty of water. Other specific advice would be given as well.

She said a vaccine could not be developed by scientists until they knew how the virus had mutated. However, stocks of anti-viral drugs were available which would not prevent infection but reduce the effects, and which would be given to patients and also key workers such as health staff coming heavily into contact with infected patients.

Dr Coole's comments came as the National Farmers' Union urged poultry farmers in the region to remain vigilant against any signs of bird flu.

"Avian Influenza, which primarily affects birds not humans, would have potentially disastrous consequences for the British poultry industry," said Charles Bourns, NFU Poultry Board Chairman.

"Farmers should redouble their biosecurity measures to ensure poultry enclosures, houses and surrounding areas are kept as clean as possible in order not to attract wild birds. Clothes, vehicles and boots should be cleaned and disinfected as appropriate."

Steps have been taken in Turkey and Romania to control the spread of suspected avian flu, with farmers in one quarantined Turkish village being ordered to hand over their turkeys for culling or face fines.

York survivor's memories of 1919 epidemic

What happened when flu pandemics struck York in the past? MIKE LAYCOCK speaks to a 96-year-old York pensioner who suffered Spanish flu in 1919 and lived to tell the tale, while ELIZABETH TURNOCK looks back through the York archives.

REG BUTLER knows exactly what an influenza pandemic is like.

The 96-year-old York pensioner fell ill with "Spanish Flu" in the spring of 1919, along with his sisters, Gladys and Phyllis, and father Fred. Only his mother failed to get the illness.

He and his sisters survived to tell the tale, but their father died within days - despite being an extremely fit physical training instructor in the Army.

"We were in Ripon at the time," said Reg, of Haxby Road. "Phyllis and I were nursed in one bed by our mother, and Gladys was in another, while my father, who was waiting for his discharge from the Army, was taken off to a military hospital. He died a few days later.

"I was feeling ill and lying in bed with my sister when blood shot out of my mouth and covered the wall. It just spurted out.

"We made a full recovery, but 12 to 18 months later, I got diphtheria and had to go off to the fever hospital. At that time, that was a killer as well."

Reg survived that, but during the Second World War came close to death a third time when a hotel he was staying in at Skegness received a direct hit during a bombing raid. He had to be pulled from the rubble, blinded in one eye, deafened and with several broken fingers - but still alive.

Now he says matters have come full circle with the possible return of a flu pandemic - but wonders if he might be immune after all his experiences.

The flu pandemic of 1918-19 is believed to have killed up to 50 million people worldwide, and more than 200,000 in the UK.

The city archives show that at the height of the pandemic in York, influenza accounted for 82 out of 172 deaths between October 5 and November 2, 1918.

In July that year, the Medical Officer of Health had deemed it necessary for a number of elementary schools to be closed, and two with the worst problems, St Paul's Girls and Clifton School, remained closed until the following March.

The council also excluded children under the age of 14 from cinemas, and cinema proprietors were also requested to ensure that their buildings were well ventilated, with one hour closures between performances.

The City Health Committee archive also reveals how, in February 1919, the County Hospital could not receive any further influenza cases and requested alternate means of treatment, implying that the hospital was at its capacity, despite many patients already being admitted to an isolation ward at the Yearsley Bridge hospital.

At one stage, the Medical Officer enlisted help from an extra 20 women to nurse the sick.

The pandemic finally petered out in May 1919.

We asked people in York if they thought enough was being done to prepare for a potential flu outbreak.

Margaret Anderton, 53, a PA from Badger Hill, York: "It does worry me and although there is a vaccine, I'm aware that it is in limited supply."

Ben Galloway, 38, an interior designer, from Clementhorpe, York: "Coverage of the situation has made me aware of it and I hope that it will not happen here."

Mike Taylor, 52, an IT manager, from Rawcliffe: "I don't think there are enough precautionary measures put in place to deal with a possible crisis, so far."

Maxine Cahal, 20, a York student: "It's a worry, especially for travellers. I would be concerned that I may become ill if I were on a plane with somebody who had it."

James Kalver, 20, a paralegal, from Heslington, said: "I know that the Government have been testing migratory birds, but I am still concerned for vulnerable people in society."

Updated: 08:30 Friday, October 14, 2005