Could we cope with another freezing winter like 1963?

BRACE yourselves: we are in for a cold winter.

Not as cold as the legendary winters of 1962/63 or 1947, perhaps, but colder than any we have become used to in recent years.

The Met Office has put out an amber alert, calling on the Government, the health service and energy companies to begin to prepare now.

"We have to be careful not to be too dramatic," said Ewen McCallum, Met Office chief meteorologist. "It was a particularly cold winter in 1962-63. We are probably looking at winters going back to 1995-96. But we have had a pattern of very mild winters over the past few years, so this will come as a shock."

The Met Office is basing its prediction on the "North Atlantic oscillation" - a system which uses atmospheric pressure differences across the Atlantic to predict long-range weather patterns.

Readings suggest that this winter the prevailing winds, instead of coming in off the Atlantic and so bringing with them warm, wet weather, will come mainly from the East - Scandinavia and Siberia - conveying much colder weather.

Long-range weather predictions are not an exact science. Nevertheless, the Met Office believes there is a high probability of an unusually cold winter. It estimates its calculations are 66 per cent likely to be right.

"We don't want to cause a scare," said Mr McCallum. "This is really just forward planning."

BBC Look North weatherman Paul Hudson - whose new book That's The Forecast has just been published by Great Northern - says for the Met Office to have taken the unusual step of issuing such a public statement suggests this warning needs to be taken seriously.

So just how cold does Paul think the winter will get?

Nobody knows, he admits, but the indications are that it could be "much colder than normal" - especially in January and February. And because recent winters have been fairly mild, a cold winter could be a "real shock to the system".

So how well equipped are we to deal with a big freeze?

Power companies insist they have the capacity to generate enough electricity to cope with a greater demand than usual. A spokesman for npower said all the indications were that it wouldn't be as cold as 1963. There was a range of coal, oil and gas-fired power stations that could be brought on line at any time to generate extra supply, a spokeswoman said. "So the lights should not go out."

While nationwide blackouts should be avoided, however, localised blackouts are likely if the weather turns severe.

There is always the possibility that power lines could be brought down by high winds, snow and ice. Maintaining these lines is the responsibility of local electricity distribution companies - NEDL in the case of York.

Jon Bird, a spokesman for the company, said £100m was invested every year in maintaining and improving the supply network. Power lines were regularly inspected, he said, and these days lines tended to be linked.

In the event of one line failing, power could be diverted via another route, so that supplies would continue to everyone except those living close to a damaged line.

Sophisticated repair systems also allowed the quick and automatic repair of minor problems.

In the event of a major power-line breakage, NEDL could call on staff from other power companies to help with repairs.

Even if we escape major blackouts, it is likely to be very cold - which brings problems for the old, the sick and the isolated.

Sally Hutchinson, of Age Concern York, says that last year - a comparatively mild winter - 500 people died as a direct result of hypothermia. A further 30-40,000 people died during the winter, many of them from cold-related causes.

So it is vital that elderly people don't stint on the heating. The winter cold-weather payments are there to help with the cost of keeping warm - and that is what they should be used for.

It is also important that elderly people contact their GP about arranging a flu jab, Sally said. "If it is going to be very cold, people are going to be more vulnerable," she said.

Power companies, local authorities and health services have registers of those who are likely to be most vulnerable in times of cold. However, Ian Speirs, an emergency planning adviser with City of York Council, admits there are bound to be vulnerable people who are not on any of the registers.

Age Concern also suggests that anybody who knows or lives next door to an elderly or vulnerable person should check on them during severe spells of weather.

The nightmare scenario, said James Player, Age Concern York's deputy chief officer, would be a long cold spell, followed by a flu outbreak, followed by transport problems or power shortages.

York council says it has a "comprehensive winter maintenance plan" in place to keep the city's roads and footpaths as clear as possible during winter.

"This includes ensuring that the gritter drivers are familiar with their designated routes, that the necessary equipment and systems are in good working order before any bad weather arrives, that there are enough trained gritter drivers to provide round the clocking gritting if necessary and that there are sufficient stores of rock salt," a spokeswoman said.

The council's social services team also worked closely with the health services to make sure there were arrangements in place to deal with vulnerable people who may need extra support during cold weather, she said.

Mr Player said the Met Office warning highlighted the need for joined-up thinking from local authorities, power companies, the health services and other agencies.

But he said everybody could play their part. "Be prepared to help other people, and check your neighbours to make sure they are OK," he said. "The good thing about neighbours is that if the roads are difficult, you don't have to travel too far to check on them."

York Hospital said it had planned "for the additional challenges that the winter months bring".

Hospital staff would be working with local health and social care partners to coordinate services, a spokesperson said.

"We strive to deal with the additional demands that this time of year brings, including those that result from particularly cold spells.

"We would however, urge members of the public to continue to help their local NHS services this winter by making sure they access services in the most appropriate way. This includes using accident and emergency departments wisely.

"People requiring more information about how they can help do this should visit www.nhsdirect.nhs.uk."

THE winters of 1947 and 1962/3 have gone down in legend as the worst in living memory.

Des Reed, a columnist on the Evening Press's sister paper the Gazette & Herald, remembers both.

He lived at Hovingham in 1947 and recalls the snow being high enough to cover garage doors. His wife gave birth in the depths of the big freeze.

"It was the morning of February 26th, and she said 'I'm going to have a baby,'" he recalls. "The ambulance said they couldn't get through, the police said there was no road through. The district nurse agreed to come, but then said she couldn't get out of the garage."

The family's doctor lived in the village and said he would put his wellies on and walk over. In the end, a neighbour came to the rescue before the doctor arrived.

"Across the road there was a farmer's wife, and she had fairly extensive experience! She delivered the baby, and then the doctor walked in."

Des remembers 1963 as being particularly icy and freezing. He was living in Malton and the pipes froze so there was no water.

The water company brought round portable generators and used clamps on jump leads to pass an electric current through pipes in an attempt to thaw them. "Sometimes it worked, sometimes it didn't," Des recalls.

He also had to go every day to the bank in Malton to take the takings from Malton Motors, where he worked. He would take a two gallon can with him and hand it over the counter to be filled with water.

"I drew two gallons of water from the bank each day!" he said.

:: Coping during a big freeze

How you can prepare

THERE are things you can do now, says Sally Hutchinson of Age Concern. These include:

Checking your central heating works

Making sure your chimney is not blocked, if you think you might want a fire

Contacting the Energy Efficiency Advice Centre in York (Freephone 0800 512012) for advice on keeping your house warm and to see if you qualify for grants

Get your electric blanket checked. York trading standards will be checking blankets at The Guildhall next Tuesday and Wednesday between 9am-4pm. Call 0845 404 0506 to make an appointment.

Emergency planner Ian Speirs says while you don't need to start panic buying, it might be worth stocking up with a few basics. He advises:

A torch, with batteries

A radio, with batteries

Water

Tinned food that will be edible if you have to eat it cold

Possibly small Calor gas cooker

Keeping warm

Best advice on keeping warm is:

Don't stint on heating. The Department of Health recommends keeping a temperature of 21 degrees C (70 F) in the rooms you use during the day. People on benefits may qualify for a grant. Call the Winter Warmth Advice Line on 0800 085 7000

Wear layers of thin clothes rather than one thick layer - the warmth from your body will get trapped between the layers, keeping you warmer. Wear a hat - 30 per cent of body heat is lost through the head, says Age Concern's Sally Hutchinson

Aim to have at least one hot meal a day and have hot drinks regularly. Have a hot drink before bedtime and prepare a thermos flask of a hot drink to have by your bed in case you wake at night feeling cold

Updated: 10:23 Friday, October 21, 2005